What is a double-dip recession? The last recession ended in June of 2009, which means the current recovery is more than two years old now. Following the logic of economists still calling for a double-dip, why not call it a triple-dip or something more logical like a secular cycle beginning in March of 2000? If and when we enter a new recession it won't be a double-dip; it will simply be a new recession.
I can see the reasoning of Investopedia's definition of double-dip recession, which is "When gross domestic product (GDP) growth slides back to negative after a quarter or two of positive growth." However, assuming this quarter ends positive, the US Economy will have had nine quarters of positive growth. That's not a double-dip recession by their definition. (By the way, isn't all growth positive? And why do economists use the term "negative growth?" That's like saying, "cheeseburger without the cheese." But I digress...)
I can also understand the reasoning of naming what may become a double-dip recession based upon the lagging employment and housing sectors of the economy. It "feels" as if the previous recession never ended. So one may reasonably say that any new recession that occurs after short-lived growth, and due to various economic challenges, such as layoffs, corporate cutbacks, and poor consumer confidence, arising from the previous recession, may be called a double-dip recession. I can see the reasoning of the name but I still don't like it...
"He that knows he has no other than particular ideas will not puzzle himself in vain to find out and conceive the abstract idea annexed to any name. And he that knows names do not always stand for ideas will spare himself the labor of looking for ideas where there are none to be had." ~ George Berkeley
Please accept my apologies for the mild symantic rant but I do not see any good use of logic or practicality of naming two recessions in relative proximity to eachother a double-dip recession. This would be like naming two separate scoops of ice cream several inches apart a double-dip ice cream. Even my 6-year old understands this logic. Essentially, a double-dip ice cream consists of two scoops combined to form one oddly shaped scoop.
If a recession occurs in the near future, it will be a new recession, distinct from its predecessor. Therefore, we have two recessions in proximity--not one recession with a catchy name: There will be no double-dip recession.
I do need to remember, however, that double-dip recession is simply a term generally accepted by economists and mainstream media, which makes the term conventional. Ahhh, now I know my problem with the term--it's conventional!
What are your thoughts?