Japanese Nuclear Crisis: A Lesson in Fear

"Fear always springs from ignorance." ~ Ralph Waldo Emerson

How much nuclear radiation exposure will cause sickness?  What amount will cause death?  Will dangerous levels of radiation reach other countries, such as the United States?  The primary cause of fear and panic in Japan, which extended to a 16% decline in Japan's Nikkei Stock Average this week, is not the danger of nuclear radiation exposure:  The fear and panic is a result of the unknown.

For some perspective, consider some points made on the ABC News report, Radiation Reality Check:

• Radiation is all around us and even inside us at all times; it is a part of nature.  Such common items as the potassium in bananas are radioactive.
• The average human being is exposed to 3.5 millisieverts of radiation annually.  This amount of exposure is equivelent to 67 chest X-rays.
• A person would need to be exposed to roughly 1,000 millisieverts of radiation to cause sickness.  A fatal dose is in the range of 5,000 millisieverts.
• At the scene of the fire at the nuclear power plant in Japan, the radiation level is approximately 400 millisieverts.  At this level, a person would have to sit there for 2.5 hours to get sick.

Although there is no present danger of serious illness or death from radiation exposure, the Japanese people certainly are justified in their concern over the potential of a worst-case, Chernobyl-size event.  But should Americans be buying iodide pills, geiger counters and emergency kits online?  Should world financial markets decline in response to an unlikely yet terrifying possibility?

"Courage is knowing what not to fear." ~ Plato

People do not fear risk; they fear imagined consequences.  The risk of being struck by lightening is extremely low but we imagine the horrific consequence and run for shelter in fear at the sound of thunder.  Making matters worse, this misguided fear often distracts us from other perils that are real and present.  For example, death by drowning in a rip current occurs more often than shark bites, which rarely result in death.  The former is overlooked because the latter is more vivid and horrifying; thus the ocean swimmer's risk is increased because of fearing the wrong thing. 

The human imagination is powerful; it influences thought and emotion, which directly affect our actions.  But if a room is dark, must there be a monster inside?  What opportunities might you miss because of fear that provokes an image that may or may not be real?

As Franklin D Roosevelt once said, "All we have to fear is fear itself."  With regard to large numbers of people, do not fear what the herd fears, fear being trampled by the herd.  If you hear someone yell, "Fire!", your best initial reaction is to sit still.

-----------------------------------------------------

Related: Quotes on Worry, Fear, Anxiety & Suffering

Comments

[mark]

Thank you for displaying such common sense! I had noticed that the media never gave amounts of radiation, only that they were 'dangerous'levels. I really like your posts, keep it up!

Mark

[Kent @ The Financial Philosopher]

Mark:

Thanks for the comment. Mass media exists to sell advertising and, to sell advertising, they must attract or distract people to watch/read/listen.

The media is not inherently evil but business is good when they can scare people into tuning in.

It's all noise!

On a more serious note, let's hope that the radiation levels do not get as high as most media is implying with their images and words.

[mark]

Thanks Kent! I was starting to worry that the media and the panickers were going to be right about the radiation levels. Then I saw that regardless of what happens, the correct path is to not panic! I think this is true of investing, also.

Here in Seattle, there is a fast food, seafood restaurant called Ivars. The owner used to have commercials saying "Keep clam!". It's never a good idea to panic and start thinking the worst, or to let others move you to panic.

Take care,
Mark

[Christy Bullard]

Great news! I was really starting to believe we were being lied to by all the media. I love your writing and look forward to reading more from you.
Keep up the positive outlook there's a lot of people out there who need to read what you have to say. Wishing you continued success.

[Kent @ The Financial Philosopher]

Christy: Thanks for the comment and positive support for the blog.

Herd behavior is interesting to observe and potentially dangerous to participate in.

Understanding the motivations of the media and how people react to "the news" is a significant part of survival.

Thanks again for the comments...

Kent