What would Lau-tzu say about lending practices? Would Confucius use a credit card? Would Michel de Montaigne listen to Jim Cramer? What would Shakespeare say about spending? And what would Ayn Rand say about government bail outs?
"The reading of all good books is indeed like a conversation with the noblest men of past centuries who were the authors of them, nay a carefully studied conversation, in which they reveal to us none but the best of their thoughts." ~ Rene Descartes
Human behavior has not changed in three-thousand years or perhaps, if at all, in the history of mankind. The perspective I receive from reading the thoughts of the greatest thinkers who lived dozens, hundreds or even thousands of years ago is amazing. If humans behaved the same in 600 BC as they do now, what makes us think it will ever be different -- or if the way we act will ever change?
Reading the thoughts of the greatest thinkers reminds us that human behavior never really changes -- only the circumstances and settings change -- and provides insights into how we may affect our own behavior in light of the predictability of that of others. Our only control is of our own thoughts, desires and emotions -- and even that control is limited to the degree of our self-awareness and emotional intelligence...
"Government 'help' to business is just as disastrous as government persecution... the only way a government can be of service to national prosperity is by keeping its hands off." ~ Ayn Rand
Much of where we are today in the financial crisis is the doing of the federal government. Of course, no
one twisted the arms of consumers or forced them beyond their will to buy homes, cars, clothes and self- indulgence, but the federal government certainly made it more possible. Historically low interest rates and an arguably over-friendly business environment gave complacency and greed just enough room and energy to manifest into the monster it inevitably would become...
And now that same government will "save us" from the monster it fed, nourished and unleashed...
"You have power over your mind -- not outside events. Realize this, and you will find strength." ~ Marcus Aurelius
If the federal government bails out financial firms with $1 trillion of our tax dollars, what control do we have over this? Of course, we may cast votes to elect our government representatives but those in office now are those who will make the decisions now -- not those for whom we cast votes in the next election or elections to follow.
What may we control? Our thoughts, our emotions, our desires, our asset allocation, our attention allocation, our investment selection, our actions and our passivity are all within our control to some degree. The actions, or lack thereof, of others and entities outside of ourselves are not within our control. How we prepare for, or how we react to, outside events is where our strength will be established and determined.
"He who establishes his argument by noise and command shows that his reason is weak." ~ Michel de Montaigne
What would Montaigne say about Jim Cramer or any talking head that essentially sells ad time and books with noise? Their "reason is weak" and their purpose is not founded upon altruism; therefore, we should be careful of frantically searching for answers in the media.
If anything, we could look to the noisemakers as examples of how not to actand as a proxy for the extremes of foolish behavior in financial markets and the world beyond. In fact, the precise opposite actions and reactions of the noisemakers have proven to be prudent more times than not.
"Have more than thou showest, speak less than thou knowest." ~ William Shakespeare
The current financial crisis is a result of behavior completely opposite to these famous words from Shakespeare. In western culture, we have both the desire and the capacity to buy now and pay later -- we wish to show more than we possess -- our display of material wealth is actually a display of our credit capacity and our desire is stronger than our will. Because we can buy it now, we do buy it now, with little consideration of consequences. This display is not one of financial power -- it is a display of our borrowing power -- and the lack of power over ourselves.
"Freedom from the desire for the answer is essential to the understanding of a problem." ~ Jiddu Krishnamurti
What happens now? Where will this financial crisis lead us? Is the worst behind us or is the worst ahead
of us? These questions in themselves are distractions from solutions to the problem.
We always look for answers from other people -- from other sources outside of ourselves. If we stop asking questions, the silence itself allows us to listen to the real source of answers -- that which is within ourselves.
"Wealth and rank are what people desire, but unless they are obtained in the right way they may not be possessed." ~ Confucius
Our society has become a status and debt society. If we may not possess wealth and rank then we will borrow it to inflate our egos and our economies until they become too large to contain.
I do believe that "wealth and rank" may be achieved in "the right way." Of course there are examples to the contrary but those who begin with a passion for something other than money, then money often follows that passion; and when our altruism inspires us to give away money, it often attracts more money -- not because of the love of money -- but because of the pursuit of a passion other than money.
"There is no calamity greater than lavish desires. There is not greater guilt than discontent. And there is no greater disaster than greed."~ Lau-tzu
The cycle of greed is coming to an end. Of course, the end of this cycle will not mark the end of greed -- it will only mark the end of this particular manifestation of greed.
Do you remember Enron? They were the ultimate symbol of the particular form of greed and hubris that ended the last market cycle. This market cycle's poster children will likely be Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, and AIG -- or perhaps others loom...
"I tell you that virtue does not come from money but from virtue comes money and every other good of man." ~ Socrates
This quote contains the core of my financial philosophy: Money does not bring meaning -- it brings short-
term rewards, which is a human and flawed pursuit. The path to a meaningful existence is not the path of least resistance -- the shortest distance between two points is not necessarily a straight line...
It's been said thousands of times in thousands of different ways but the truth remains that our life is a journey and our fulfillment, meaning, actualization, or whatever word you want to attach to the true source of our well-being, is about the journey itself -- it is not about the destination -- if there even is a destination.
If we pursue meaning in our lives, money may follow. If money does not follow, it will not matter because we are already "rich" -- we find contentment in our pursuits -- and what happens outside of our control is just a production of the natural course of things.
Related Posts:
Weekend Wisdom: Going Through the Emotions
The 'Diminishing Marginal Utility' of Wealth
How Long is Your Lever?
Images: "The Wise Man" by Jim Warren
The Beginning of the End (and of Brilliance)
It's time for a bit of perspective...
The chaos of the week will have most people intensely focusing on events as they occur without considering how their decisions, or lack thereof, will impact their future. As we think of and feel the challenges of the present, we essentially hold ourselves in the past, and we prevent ourselves from moving forward; we focus on what negative results could occur rather than how we may benefit; and we feel things that are not within our control as we lose sight of those things that are within our control.
Prudent risk management would have us investing long-term assets with a holding period of at least three years. Ask yourself if you believe stocks are more likely to be higher in three years or if they may be lower. If you haven't guessed, I'm firmly anticipating the former.
It is interesting to note that this week's stock price declines erased about three years of stock price gains. The lesson implied here is that, when the market is strong and the bull market duration is reaching average length, an assumption that stock prices will be higher in three years is not prudent risk management. Conversely, an assumption in today's bear market that stock prices will be lower in three years is not prudent either...
"Only in quiet waters things mirror themselves undistorted. Only in a quiet mind is adequate perception of the world." ~ Hans Margolius
It is difficult to step outside of the noise and simply observe. Let's take a quiet moment to make some observations about this week's turmoil for some perspective and, more importantly, to learn lessons for our future utility and growth:
- <="<" li="li">We learned that the unexpected and the hidden have tremendous power. Understand and remember that, no matter how wonderful or tragic, the revelation of the unknown provides knowledge and transfers the unknown's power to us.
- <="<" li="li">Mass movements (high volume) in one direction increases the energy to move in the other. Think of your lessons in physical science -- a pendulum that swings back and forth.
- <="<" li="li"><="<" li="li">Market sentiment is the opposite now (fear and panic) as it was in early 2007 (complacency and
greed) when I observed signs of the beginning of the end of the last Bull market.
- <="<" li="li"><="<" li="li">The media can't stop talking about the terrible state of our economy and financial markets; the word panic was used quite frequently this week; <="<" li="li">large firms are collapsing; the weak are being devoured or rescued by the strong; stock price declines not seen in years are occurring; and the negativity and bad news has spread completely from Wall Street to Main Street. These are all indicators that the current cycle is drawing ever closer to an end.
- <="<" li="li"><="<" li="li">Volatility (as measured by "The Vix") is essentially a proxy for human emotion and uncertainty. The Vix touched levels this week that have marked the beginning of the end of bear markets in the recent past.
"Before the beginning of brilliance, there must be great chaos. Before a brilliant person begins something great, they must look foolish in the crowd." ~ From the I Ching, traditionally viewed as written by Fu Hsi (2852-2738 BC)This week may not mark the bottom for stock prices but it is showing signs of the beginning of the end --the beginning of brilliance for the prudent investor: Chaos brings order; storms and earthquakes destroy the weakest of structures and bring the construction of stronger ones; fires bring new life; nothing comes from something; something comes from nothing; and death gives sustenance and meaning to life.
Related Posts:
Weekend Wisdom: Uncertainty, Volatility and 'The Vix'
Investing in 'The Movement of Things'
Weekend Wisdom with Mohnish Pabrai
Bear Market Logic
Posted at 11:41 AM in Behavioral Finance, Market Commentary, Psychology | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
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